Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.008379 0.009458 0.010624 0.011978 0.013509 0.015186 0.017164
2025-12-14 0.006526 0.007976 0.009672 0.011807 0.014423 0.017529 0.021503
2025-12-21 0.005394 0.006961 0.008898 0.011473 0.014809 0.018997 0.024668
2025-12-28 0.004882 0.006589 0.008795 0.011862 0.016026 0.021498 0.029262
2026-01-04 0.004431 0.006217 0.008616 0.012084 0.016984 0.023685 0.033590
2026-01-11 0.004089 0.005938 0.008511 0.012362 0.018004 0.026001 0.038263
2026-01-18 0.003696 0.005539 0.008184 0.012273 0.018460 0.027521 0.041888
2026-01-25 0.003386 0.005223 0.007938 0.012260 0.019002 0.029180 0.045827
2026-02-01 0.003072 0.004869 0.007597 0.012059 0.019221 0.030341 0.049069
2026-02-08 0.002863 0.004654 0.007445 0.012130 0.019854 0.032175 0.053505
2026-02-15 0.002642 0.004399 0.007204 0.012031 0.020193 0.033545 0.057277
2026-02-22 0.002516 0.004288 0.007182 0.012283 0.021120 0.035938 0.062950
2026-03-01 0.002276 0.003968 0.006796 0.011895 0.020945 0.036490 0.065542
2026-03-08 0.002097 0.003737 0.006540 0.011711 0.021105 0.037626 0.069266
2026-03-15 0.001912 0.003481 0.006218 0.011380 0.020969 0.038216 0.072026
2026-03-22 0.001856 0.003451 0.006292 0.011766 0.022166 0.041296 0.079680
2026-03-29 0.001780 0.003376 0.006278 0.011986 0.023065 0.043888 0.086617
2026-04-05 0.001717 0.003320 0.006294 0.012262 0.024090 0.046791 0.094405
2026-04-12 0.001612 0.003175 0.006130 0.012173 0.024391 0.048316 0.099554
2026-04-19 0.001525 0.003058 0.006010 0.012160 0.024840 0.050158 0.105498
2026-04-26 0.001423 0.002904 0.005806 0.011962 0.024891 0.051200 0.109849
2026-05-03 0.001359 0.002822 0.005736 0.012032 0.025502 0.053429 0.116912
2026-05-10 0.001282 0.002706 0.005592 0.011934 0.025747 0.054908 0.122462